Market Research for Innovators

Market Research Irony

Looking for “Total Available Market?”
– In a budgeted category, there is a science for that. You will do well.

Looking for how well an innovative new product will sell?
– There is no science for that, and a history of poor results.

When the iPhone was announced, the market research looked at Blackberry trends, the Palm Pilot, even the Nokia 9000 (a great phone). The market research predicted a total available market of smartphones of a few million phones. One year later, the iPhone announcements were on the front pages of 27 major newspapers within the same hour. In 2008, more than 10 million iPhones sold. More than twice the 2013, 150 million iPhones were sold.

If you are an innovator, market research will not tell you how many will sell.

See the PDF for some more examples.